Data snapshot Snapshot Nov 8, 2026
CPI Prediction Markets: What Traders Priced for the Next Prints
Inflation prints are the second pillar of the rates complex, and the dataset reflects that: 155 markets sit in the inflation category, with CPI markets the largest block. These contracts price the Consumer Price Index before the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes it, usually as strike ladders on the monthly or yearly figure. A trader who thinks the consensus estimate is wrong can express that view contract by contract, strike by strike.
The snapshot taken on Nov 8, 2026 catches the market mid conversation. Some CPI contracts price the headline number, others the core reading, and event contracts from CME frame the same release as a strike event against the official print. Because the resolution source is the published BLS figure, these markets settle cleanly, which is one reason they attract volume from people who also trade the rate decisions that follow the print.
| Market | Platform | Yes price (snapshot) | Volume (snapshot) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI: Above 0.1% | Kalshi | 95% | 368237.05 contracts |
| CPI: Above 0.2% | Kalshi | 62% | 299141.54 contracts |
| CPI core: Above 0.1% | Kalshi | 87% | 268604.32 contracts |
| CPI: Above 0.3% | Kalshi | 15% | 232017.33 contracts |
| CPI core: Above 0.2% | Kalshi | 43% | 161050.81 contracts |
| CPI core: Above 0.3% | Kalshi | 7% | 122366.41 contracts |
| Inflation: Above 3.9% | Kalshi | 23% | 118198.81 contracts |
| Inflation: Above 3.8% | Kalshi | 37% | 110168.74 contracts |
| CPI: Above 0.4% | Kalshi | 2% | 105627.25 contracts |
| CPI core: Above 0.0% | Kalshi | 99% | 103018.77 contracts |
| Inflation: Above 4.1% | Kalshi | 6% | 95288.93 contracts |
| CPI core: Above 0.4% | Kalshi | 1% | 92265.77 contracts |
The strike ladder shape is the story. Prices near the consensus strike cluster around the middle of the range, while tail strikes trade for a few cents. That pattern is the market drawing its own probability distribution for the print, and it updates as data arrives. Comparing the ladder across platforms shows how much of the shape is shared and how much is one venue's flow.
The audience for these markets explains their quality. CPI contracts are traded by people who build inflation forecasts for a living, by rates traders hedging the meeting that follows the print, and by forecasters who treat the ladder as a public nowcast. That mix is why the implied distribution often sits closer to the published figure than the median survey estimate, and why misses are interesting: when the print lands outside the ladder's heavy zone, the rate markets reprice within minutes, and the CPI ladder becomes the record of what the crowd believed beforehand. This site keeps the snapshot rather than the stream precisely so that record survives.
One more habit separates careful readers: checking what the ladder said last time. A single snapshot shows the distribution; two show the revision. Forecasters publish their CPI calls in the days before the print, and the ladder absorbs them strike by strike. When the heavy zone of the ladder moves between snapshots, expectations moved, whether or not any headline said so. This site keeps its figures dated so that comparison is possible at all; a stream of undated prices would make the current number easy to read and the history impossible.
Used well, CPI markets are a nowcast you can read at a glance: the implied distribution before the release, and a record of how it moved. Used badly, they are a reminder that a snapshot is not a quote. Every figure in the table is dated Nov 8, 2026, and the live links on each market page lead to the current ladder.
Snapshot data: prices and volume were collected from the platform on Nov 8, 2026. They are dated snapshots, not live quotes. Use the live market link for current prices.