Fed and CPI odds tracker
All 97 Federal Reserve decision markets and 94 CPI markets in the Nov 8, 2026 snapshot, grouped by platform. Prices are snapshots, not live quotes. Open any market for its resolution rules and the live link.
Federal Reserve decision markets
| Market | Platform | Yes price (snapshot) | Volume (snapshot) | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed meeting: Hike 25bps | Kalshi | 76% | 1375049.07 contracts | 2026-12-09T18:59:00Z |
| Fed meeting: Fed maintains rate | Kalshi | 23% | 1273912.47 contracts | 2026-12-09T18:59:00Z |
| Fed meeting: Hike >25bps | Kalshi | 2% | 977125.06 contracts | 2026-12-09T18:59:00Z |
| Fed meeting: Cut 25bps | Kalshi | 2% | 582472.36 contracts | 2026-12-09T18:59:00Z |
| Fed meeting: Cut >25bps | Kalshi | 1% | 245418.98 contracts | 2026-12-09T18:59:00Z |
| Fed emergency meeting: Before Jan 1, 2027 | Kalshi | 2.9% | 204910.64 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Fed meeting: Hike 25bps | Kalshi | 21% | 204750.12 contracts | 2027-01-27T18:59:00Z |
| Fed meeting: Fed maintains rate | Kalshi | 93% | 113009.47 contracts | 2027-07-28T17:59:00Z |
| Fed meeting: Fed maintains rate | Kalshi | 74% | 85537.01 contracts | 2027-01-27T18:59:00Z |
| Fed meeting: Cut 25bps | Kalshi | 7% | 82104.61 contracts | 2027-10-27T17:59:00Z |
| Fed meeting: Hike >25bps | Kalshi | 2% | 78012.27 contracts | 2027-12-08T18:59:00Z |
| Fed meeting: Hike 25bps | Kalshi | 14% | 69032.19 contracts | 2027-04-28T17:59:00Z |
| Fed meeting: Cut >25bps | Kalshi | 2% | 53550.06 contracts | 2027-10-27T17:59:00Z |
| Total dissenting FOMC votes in year: Exactly 9 | Kalshi | 58% | 828.41 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Total dissenting FOMC votes in year: Exactly 10 | Kalshi | 20% | 741.12 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Total dissenting FOMC votes in year: Exactly 12 | Kalshi | 12% | 533.38 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Total dissenting FOMC votes in year: 13+ | Kalshi | 5% | 300.14 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Total dissenting FOMC votes in year: Exactly 11 | Kalshi | 8% | 229.27 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps) | Polymarket | 98.05% | $9,540,471.42 Vol. | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 11 (275 bps) | Polymarket | 0.05% | $5,331,586.89 Vol. | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase | Polymarket | 76.5% | $5,048,879.64 Vol. | 2026-12-09T23:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 10 (250 bps) | Polymarket | 0.05% | $4,991,761.72 Vol. | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 9 (225 bps) | Polymarket | 0.05% | $4,324,517.02 Vol. | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 6 (150 bps) | Polymarket | 0.05% | $4,251,444.08 Vol. | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 12+ (300+ bps) | Polymarket | 0.1% | $4,182,857.86 Vol. | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in December?: No change | Polymarket | 21.5% | $3,814,447.03 Vol. | 2026-12-09T23:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 1 (25 bps) | Polymarket | 1.1% | $3,710,618.49 Vol. | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 2 (50 bps) | Polymarket | 0.25% | $3,545,288.85 Vol. | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 7 (175 bps) | Polymarket | 0.05% | $3,535,545.29 Vol. | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 8 (200 bps) | Polymarket | 0.05% | $3,322,576.12 Vol. | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps decrease | Polymarket | 0.8% | $3,003,338.02 Vol. | 2026-12-09T23:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in December?: 50+ bps decrease | Polymarket | 0.7% | $2,766,249.61 Vol. | 2026-12-09T23:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in December?: 50+ bps increase | Polymarket | 0.55% | $2,067,981.82 Vol. | 2026-12-09T23:59:00Z |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | Polymarket | 75.5% | $1,588,257.50 Vol. | 2026-12-10T04:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 1 (25 bps) | Polymarket | 22.5% | $746,288.30 Vol. | 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z |
| Fed rate cut by...?: December 2026 Meeting | Polymarket | 1.55% | $459,695.15 Vol. | 2027-01-29T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in January?: 25 bps increase | Polymarket | 18.5% | $427,751.12 Vol. | 2027-01-28T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in January?: No change | Polymarket | 77.5% | $353,563.55 Vol. | 2027-01-28T04:59:00Z |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? | Polymarket | 2.05% | $262,488.43 Vol. | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 2 (50 bps) | Polymarket | 77.5% | $254,771.80 Vol. | 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 3 (75 bps) | Polymarket | 0.65% | $209,424.64 Vol. | 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in January?: 50+ bps decrease | Polymarket | 0.85% | $207,287.55 Vol. | 2027-01-28T04:59:00Z |
| Fed decisions (Sep–Dec): Hike–Pause–Hike | Polymarket | 76.5% | $197,851.01 Vol. | 2026-12-09T23:59:00Z |
| Fed decisions (Sep–Dec): Hike–Pause–Pause | Polymarket | 20% | $193,958.81 Vol. | 2026-12-09T23:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in January?: 25 bps decrease | Polymarket | 3.45% | $189,841.73 Vol. | 2027-01-28T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in January?: 50+ bps increase | Polymarket | 0.65% | $129,700.03 Vol. | 2027-01-28T04:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 4 (100 bps) | Polymarket | 0.05% | $95,212.31 Vol. | 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z |
| Fed decisions (Oct-Jan): Pause-Hike-Pause | Polymarket | 72% | $92,819.05 Vol. | 2027-01-27T23:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 5+ (125+ bps) | Polymarket | 0.05% | $82,164.10 Vol. | 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in March?: 25 bps increase | Polymarket | 35.5% | $67,508.02 Vol. | 2027-03-18T03:59:00Z |
| Fed decisions (Sep–Dec): Other | Polymarket | 1.8% | $39,781.14 Vol. | 2026-12-09T23:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in March?: No change | Polymarket | 53.5% | $31,919.34 Vol. | 2027-03-18T03:59:00Z |
| Fed decisions (Oct-Jan): Pause-Hike-Hike | Polymarket | 6.8% | $30,653.08 Vol. | 2027-01-27T23:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in April?: 25 bps increase | Polymarket | 14% | $28,662.43 Vol. | 2027-04-28T23:59:00Z |
| How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?: 0 | Polymarket | 73% | $24,056.92 Vol. | 2026-12-10T04:59:00Z |
| Fed decisions (Oct-Jan): Pause-Pause-Pause | Polymarket | 8.5% | $20,438.72 Vol. | 2027-01-27T23:59:00Z |
| Fed decisions (Oct-Jan): Pause-Pause-Hike | Polymarket | 13.55% | $15,348.83 Vol. | 2027-01-27T23:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in April?: No change | Polymarket | 59% | $12,737.55 Vol. | 2027-04-28T23:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in March?: 50+ bps decrease | Polymarket | 1.75% | $11,320.90 Vol. | 2027-03-18T03:59:00Z |
| How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?: 3 | Polymarket | 11% | $10,841.36 Vol. | 2027-01-28T04:59:00Z |
| Fed rate cut by...?: January 2027 Meeting | Polymarket | 6.7% | $9,429.90 Vol. | 2027-02-08T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in March?: 25 bps decrease | Polymarket | 5.65% | $9,281.18 Vol. | 2027-03-18T03:59:00Z |
| How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?: 1 | Polymarket | 11.25% | $8,379.39 Vol. | 2026-12-10T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in March?: 50+ bps increase | Polymarket | 1.5% | $8,131.29 Vol. | 2027-03-18T03:59:00Z |
| How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?: 2 | Polymarket | 9.05% | $7,753.18 Vol. | 2026-12-09T15:59:00Z |
| How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?: 4+ | Polymarket | 2.65% | $6,506.99 Vol. | 2026-12-09T15:59:00Z |
| Fed decisions (Oct-Jan): Other | Polymarket | 1.4% | $6,241.86 Vol. | 2027-01-27T23:59:00Z |
| Fed rate cut by...?: March 2027 Meeting | Polymarket | 12.5% | $6,197.57 Vol. | 2027-04-08T03:59:00Z |
| How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?: 0 | Polymarket | 56% | $5,686.51 Vol. | 2027-01-28T04:59:00Z |
| How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?: 4+ | Polymarket | 6.5% | $4,590.93 Vol. | 2027-01-28T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in April?: 25 bps decrease | Polymarket | 9% | $4,454.30 Vol. | 2027-04-28T23:59:00Z |
| How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?: 3 | Polymarket | 2.6% | $3,471.49 Vol. | 2026-12-09T15:59:00Z |
| How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?: 1 | Polymarket | 15% | $3,411.59 Vol. | 2027-01-28T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in April?: 50+ bps decrease | Polymarket | 6.05% | $3,344.27 Vol. | 2027-04-28T23:59:00Z |
| How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?: 2 | Polymarket | 4.65% | $2,129.73 Vol. | 2027-01-28T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in April?: 50+ bps increase | Polymarket | 1.95% | $1,966.38 Vol. | 2027-04-28T23:59:00Z |
| Fed rate cut by...?: July 2027 Meeting | Polymarket | 48% | $161.76 Vol. | 2027-08-08T03:59:00Z |
| Fed rate cut by...?: April 2027 Meeting | Polymarket | 47.5% | $155.65 Vol. | 2027-05-08T03:59:00Z |
| Fed rate cut by...?: June 2027 Meeting | Polymarket | 31.5% | $27.34 Vol. | 2027-07-08T03:59:00Z |
| Fed Funds Target Rate Above 3.375% (December 10 2026 FOMC) | ForecastEx | 99% | Open interest 9953; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2026-12-09 |
| Fed Funds Target Rate Above 3.125% (January 27 2027 FOMC) | ForecastEx | 97% | Open interest 6774; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2027-01-27 |
| Fed Funds Target Rate Above 3.125% (December 10 2026 FOMC) | ForecastEx | 98% | Open interest 527; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2026-12-09 |
| Fed Funds Target Rate Above 3.375% (January 27 2027 FOMC) | ForecastEx | 97% | Open interest 482; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2027-01-27 |
| Fed Rate Decision in December 2026: Cut 25bps | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | See market |
| Fed Rate Decision in December 2026: Fed maintains rate | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | See market |
| Fed Rate Decision in December 2026: Hike 25bps | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | See market |
| Fed Rate Decision in January 2027: Cut 25bps | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 2027-01-27 |
| Fed Rate Decision in January 2027: Fed maintains rate | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 2027-01-27 |
| Fed Rate Decision in January 2027: Hike 25bps | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 2027-01-27 |
| Fed Rate Decision in January 2027: Hike >25bps | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 2027-01-27 |
| Fed Rate Decision in March 2027: Fed maintains rate | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 2027-03-17 |
| Fed Rate Decision in March 2027: Hike 25bps | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 2027-03-17 |
| Fed Rate Decision in March 2027: Hike >25bps | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 2027-03-17 |
| FOMC Target Rate Event Contract Strike 2.25 | CME Group Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 12:59 PM ET on the FOMC announcement date |
| FOMC Target Rate Event Contract Strike 2.50 | CME Group Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 12:59 PM ET on the FOMC announcement date |
| FOMC Target Rate Event Contract Strike 2.75 | CME Group Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 12:59 PM ET on the FOMC announcement date |
| Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026? | Manifold | 1% | M$1,228.73 | 2026-12-30T23:59:00Z |
CPI markets
| Market | Platform | Yes price (snapshot) | Volume (snapshot) | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI: Above 0.1% | Kalshi | 95% | 368237.05 contracts | 2026-11-10T13:29:00Z |
| CPI: Above 0.2% | Kalshi | 62% | 299141.54 contracts | 2026-11-10T13:29:00Z |
| CPI core: Above 0.1% | Kalshi | 87% | 268604.32 contracts | 2026-11-10T13:25:00Z |
| CPI: Above 0.3% | Kalshi | 15% | 232017.33 contracts | 2026-11-10T13:29:00Z |
| CPI core: Above 0.2% | Kalshi | 43% | 161050.81 contracts | 2026-11-10T13:25:00Z |
| CPI core: Above 0.3% | Kalshi | 7% | 122366.41 contracts | 2026-11-10T13:25:00Z |
| Inflation: Above 3.9% | Kalshi | 23% | 118198.81 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:29:00Z |
| Inflation: Above 3.8% | Kalshi | 37% | 110168.74 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:29:00Z |
| CPI: Above 0.4% | Kalshi | 2% | 105627.25 contracts | 2026-11-10T13:29:00Z |
| CPI core: Above 0.0% | Kalshi | 99% | 103018.77 contracts | 2026-11-10T13:25:00Z |
| Inflation: Above 4.1% | Kalshi | 6% | 95288.93 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:29:00Z |
| CPI core: Above 0.4% | Kalshi | 1% | 92265.77 contracts | 2026-11-10T13:25:00Z |
| CPI: Above 0.0% | Kalshi | 99% | 82680.81 contracts | 2026-11-10T13:29:00Z |
| Inflation: Above 4.5% | Kalshi | 1% | 79126.01 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:29:00Z |
| CPI core: Above 0.5% | Kalshi | 1% | 76527.94 contracts | 2026-11-10T13:25:00Z |
| Inflation: Above 4.0% | Kalshi | 15% | 74880.63 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:29:00Z |
| Inflation: Above 3.8% | Kalshi | 55% | 74700.85 contracts | 2027-01-13T13:29:00Z |
| Inflation: Above 3.9% | Kalshi | 35% | 63170.65 contracts | 2027-01-13T13:29:00Z |
| CPI core: Above 0.6% | Kalshi | 1% | 63022.51 contracts | 2026-11-10T13:25:00Z |
| Core inflation: Above 2.9% | Kalshi | 26% | 54215.14 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:25:00Z |
| Core inflation: Above 2.2% | Kalshi | 99% | 47615.28 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:25:00Z |
| CPI: Above 0.5% | Kalshi | 1% | 41724.66 contracts | 2026-11-10T13:29:00Z |
| CPI core: Above 0.7% | Kalshi | 1% | 41553.00 contracts | 2026-11-10T13:25:00Z |
| CPI core: Above 0.7% | Kalshi | 1% | 37085.27 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:25:00Z |
| CPI: Above 0.1% | Kalshi | 38% | 36528.83 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:29:00Z |
| CPI: Above -0.1% | Kalshi | 99% | 36414.86 contracts | 2026-11-10T13:29:00Z |
| Inflation: Above 4.7% | Kalshi | 3% | 31881.01 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:29:00Z |
| Core inflation: Above 2.5% | Kalshi | 99% | 28786.69 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:25:00Z |
| Inflation: Above 3.6% | Kalshi | 81% | 27805.19 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:29:00Z |
| CPI: Above -0.1% | Kalshi | 72% | 27256.13 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:29:00Z |
| Inflation: Above 4.9% | Kalshi | 3% | 26748.37 contracts | 2027-01-13T13:29:00Z |
| Inflation: Above 3.7% | Kalshi | 66% | 26551.28 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:29:00Z |
| Core inflation: Above 2.5% | Kalshi | 93% | 26310.59 contracts | 2027-01-13T13:25:00Z |
| Inflation: Above 4.3% | Kalshi | 3% | 25148.03 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:29:00Z |
| Inflation: Above 4.8% | Kalshi | 5% | 24878.50 contracts | 2027-01-13T13:29:00Z |
| CPI core: Above 0.9% | Kalshi | 1% | 24757.00 contracts | 2027-01-13T13:25:00Z |
| Inflation: Above 4.2% | Kalshi | 4% | 24404.53 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:29:00Z |
| CPI core: Above 0.4% | Kalshi | 4% | 23839.13 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:25:00Z |
| Core inflation: Above 3.1% | Kalshi | 17% | 23575.25 contracts | 2027-01-13T13:25:00Z |
| Core inflation: Above 2.4% | Kalshi | 98% | 23459.02 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:25:00Z |
| CPI: Above 0.0% | Kalshi | 64% | 23218.87 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:29:00Z |
| CPI: Above 0.4% | Kalshi | 4% | 22865.41 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:29:00Z |
| Core inflation: Above 3.1% | Kalshi | 4% | 22763.66 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:25:00Z |
| CPI: Above 0.8% | Kalshi | 4% | 20986.00 contracts | 2027-01-13T13:29:00Z |
| Core inflation: Above 2.7% | Kalshi | 69% | 20677.57 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:25:00Z |
| Inflation: Above 4.1% | Kalshi | 23% | 20563.23 contracts | 2027-01-13T13:29:00Z |
| Core inflation: Above 3.2% | Kalshi | 9% | 20216.29 contracts | 2027-01-13T13:25:00Z |
| CPI: Above 0.2% | Kalshi | 17% | 19729.82 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:29:00Z |
| Inflation: Above 4.0% | Kalshi | 24% | 18878.13 contracts | 2027-01-13T13:29:00Z |
| Core inflation: Above 2.6% | Kalshi | 88% | 18797.88 contracts | 2027-01-13T13:25:00Z |
| Core inflation: Above 2.6% | Kalshi | 85% | 18669.11 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:25:00Z |
| CPI: Above 0.8% | Kalshi | 1% | 18318.45 contracts | 2026-11-10T13:29:00Z |
| CPI: Above 1.0% | Kalshi | 1% | 18085.49 contracts | 2026-11-10T13:29:00Z |
| CPI: Above 0.6% | Kalshi | 1% | 17769.98 contracts | 2026-11-10T13:29:00Z |
| Core inflation: Above 2.9% | Kalshi | 34% | 17759.63 contracts | 2027-01-13T13:25:00Z |
| Core inflation: Above 3.4% | Kalshi | 1% | 17612.02 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:25:00Z |
| Core inflation: Above 2.7% | Kalshi | 75% | 17450.86 contracts | 2027-01-13T13:25:00Z |
| Core inflation: Above 3.0% | Kalshi | 23% | 17301.67 contracts | 2027-01-13T13:25:00Z |
| CPI core: Above 0.3% | Kalshi | 14% | 17182.87 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:25:00Z |
| CPI: Above 0.5% | Kalshi | 3% | 17124.80 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:29:00Z |
| Core inflation: Above 3.3% | Kalshi | 3% | 16893.40 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:25:00Z |
| Inflation: Above 4.4% | Kalshi | 10% | 16310.50 contracts | 2027-01-13T13:29:00Z |
| Core inflation: Above 3.0% | Kalshi | 12% | 16151.99 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:25:00Z |
| CPI core: Above 0.2% | Kalshi | 46% | 15599.33 contracts | 2026-12-10T13:25:00Z |
| Inflation: Above 4.7% | Kalshi | 5% | 15555.55 contracts | 2027-01-13T13:29:00Z |
| Core inflation: Above 3.3% | Kalshi | 5% | 15402.45 contracts | 2027-01-13T13:25:00Z |
| Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026: ≤1.9% | Polymarket | 84.5% | $42,717.54 Vol. | 2027-01-22T23:59:00Z |
| Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026: 2.0-2.4% | Polymarket | 91.5% | $34,710.09 Vol. | 2027-04-01T03:59:00Z |
| Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026: 2.0-2.4% | Polymarket | 15.55% | $32,954.75 Vol. | 2027-01-22T23:59:00Z |
| Core CPI YoY - October 2026: 2.6% | Polymarket | 86.5% | $20,676.15 Vol. | 2026-11-11T04:59:00Z |
| Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026: ≤1.9% | Polymarket | 2.8% | $20,611.75 Vol. | 2027-04-01T03:59:00Z |
| Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026: 2.5-2.9% | Polymarket | 4.45% | $12,741.63 Vol. | 2027-04-01T03:59:00Z |
| Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026: 2.5-2.9% | Polymarket | 0.15% | $12,231.75 Vol. | 2027-01-22T23:59:00Z |
| Core CPI MoM - October 2026: 0.2% | Polymarket | 47% | $11,293.92 Vol. | 2026-11-11T04:59:00Z |
| CPI Year over Year Nov 2026 Above 4.1% | ForecastEx | 18% | Open interest 4014; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2026-12-10 |
| CPI Year over Year Nov 2026 Above 3.6% | ForecastEx | 78% | Open interest 3727; pair quantity 1000 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2026-12-10 |
| CPI Year over Year Nov 2026 Above 3.9% | ForecastEx | 26% | Open interest 3488; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2026-12-10 |
| CPI Year over Year Nov 2026 Above 4.0% | ForecastEx | 20% | Open interest 3135; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2026-12-10 |
| CPI Year over Year Nov 2026 Above 3.7% | ForecastEx | 68% | Open interest 3081; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2026-12-10 |
| CPI Year over Year Nov 2026 Above 3.8% | ForecastEx | 47% | Open interest 2118; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2026-12-10 |
| CPI Year over Year Nov 2026 Above 4.2% | ForecastEx | 10% | Open interest 1224; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2026-12-10 |
| CPI Year over Year Dec 2026 Above 4.0% | ForecastEx | 31% | Open interest 799; pair quantity 920 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2027-01-13 |
| CPI Year over Year Nov 2026 Above 3.5% | ForecastEx | 90% | Open interest 427; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2026-12-10 |
| CPI in October Above 0.1% | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 2026-11-10 |
| CPI in October Above 0.2% | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 2026-11-10 |
| CPI in October Above 0.3% | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 2026-11-10 |
| CPI in October Above 0.4% | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 2026-11-10 |
| CPI Urban All Items Event Contract Strike 0 | CME Group Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 8:29 AM ET on the date CPI is announced |
| CPI Urban All Items Event Contract Strike 0.10 | CME Group Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 8:29 AM ET on the date CPI is announced |
| CPI Urban All Items Event Contract Strike -0.10 | CME Group Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 8:29 AM ET on the date CPI is announced |
| Will November 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? | Manifold | 47.99% | M$19.82 | 2026-12-10T13:29:00Z |
| Will October 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? | Manifold | 52.87% | M$16.19 | 2026-11-10T13:29:00Z |
| Will December 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? | Manifold | 49.72% | M$10.00 | 2026-12-10T12:25:00Z |
| Will US CPI Inflation for November 2026 Be 3.0% or Higher? | Zeitgeist | Not priced | Not shown | See market |
PCE markets
| Market | Platform | Yes price (snapshot) | Volume (snapshot) | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core PCE Prices Event Contract Strike 0 | CME Group Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 8:29 AM ET on the date PCE is announced |
| Core PCE Prices Event Contract Strike 0.10 | CME Group Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 8:29 AM ET on the date PCE is announced |
| Core PCE Prices Event Contract Strike -0.10 | CME Group Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 8:29 AM ET on the date PCE is announced |
How to read this tracker
The Yes price is the market's own snapshot price for the Yes side, shown as an implied percentage. A Fed market priced at 68% Yes means traders in the snapshot collectively priced a 68% chance of that outcome. Different platforms list different strikes and dates, so compare the question text as well as the number. When two platforms price the same event differently, the gap is information, but it is not free money until fees, limits and resolution rules are checked on both sides.
Snapshot data: prices and volume were collected from the platform on Nov 8, 2026. They are dated snapshots, not live quotes. Use the live market link for current prices.