Interest Rates prediction markets
Markets on what central banks do next, led by Federal Reserve decisions and the level of policy rates.
146
Markets tracked
132
Priced in the snapshot
7
Platforms
Kalshi
Most markets listed
| Market | Platform | Yes price (snapshot) | Volume (snapshot) | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps) | Polymarket | 98.05% | $9,540,471.42 Vol. | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 11 (275 bps) | Polymarket | 0.05% | $5,331,586.89 Vol. | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase | Polymarket | 76.5% | $5,048,879.64 Vol. | 2026-12-09T23:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 10 (250 bps) | Polymarket | 0.05% | $4,991,761.72 Vol. | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 9 (225 bps) | Polymarket | 0.05% | $4,324,517.02 Vol. | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 6 (150 bps) | Polymarket | 0.05% | $4,251,444.08 Vol. | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 12+ (300+ bps) | Polymarket | 0.1% | $4,182,857.86 Vol. | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in December?: No change | Polymarket | 21.5% | $3,814,447.03 Vol. | 2026-12-09T23:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 1 (25 bps) | Polymarket | 1.1% | $3,710,618.49 Vol. | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 2 (50 bps) | Polymarket | 0.25% | $3,545,288.85 Vol. | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 7 (175 bps) | Polymarket | 0.05% | $3,535,545.29 Vol. | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 8 (200 bps) | Polymarket | 0.05% | $3,322,576.12 Vol. | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps decrease | Polymarket | 0.8% | $3,003,338.02 Vol. | 2026-12-09T23:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in December?: 50+ bps decrease | Polymarket | 0.7% | $2,766,249.61 Vol. | 2026-12-09T23:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in December?: 50+ bps increase | Polymarket | 0.55% | $2,067,981.82 Vol. | 2026-12-09T23:59:00Z |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | Polymarket | 75.5% | $1,588,257.50 Vol. | 2026-12-10T04:59:00Z |
| Fed meeting: Hike 25bps | Kalshi | 76% | 1375049.07 contracts | 2026-12-09T18:59:00Z |
| Fed meeting: Fed maintains rate | Kalshi | 23% | 1273912.47 contracts | 2026-12-09T18:59:00Z |
| Fed meeting: Hike >25bps | Kalshi | 2% | 977125.06 contracts | 2026-12-09T18:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 1 (25 bps) | Polymarket | 22.5% | $746,288.30 Vol. | 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z |
| Fed meeting: Cut 25bps | Kalshi | 2% | 582472.36 contracts | 2026-12-09T18:59:00Z |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime: Anthony Fauci | Kalshi | 5.7% | 555941.16 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime: Ilhan Omar | Kalshi | 23% | 510131.34 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Fed rate cut by...?: December 2026 Meeting | Polymarket | 1.55% | $459,695.15 Vol. | 2027-01-29T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in January?: 25 bps increase | Polymarket | 18.5% | $427,751.12 Vol. | 2027-01-28T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in January?: No change | Polymarket | 77.5% | $353,563.55 Vol. | 2027-01-28T04:59:00Z |
| Fed funds rate: Above 4.50% | Kalshi | 1% | 305156.94 contracts | 2026-12-09T18:55:00Z |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime: Tim Walz | Kalshi | 4.3% | 288526.78 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? | Polymarket | 2.05% | $262,488.43 Vol. | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 2 (50 bps) | Polymarket | 77.5% | $254,771.80 Vol. | 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z |
| Fed funds rate: Above 4.00% | Kalshi | 76% | 254393.42 contracts | 2026-12-09T18:55:00Z |
| Fed meeting: Cut >25bps | Kalshi | 1% | 245418.98 contracts | 2026-12-09T18:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 3 (75 bps) | Polymarket | 0.65% | $209,424.64 Vol. | 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in January?: 50+ bps decrease | Polymarket | 0.85% | $207,287.55 Vol. | 2027-01-28T04:59:00Z |
| Fed emergency meeting: Before Jan 1, 2027 | Kalshi | 2.9% | 204910.64 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Fed meeting: Hike 25bps | Kalshi | 21% | 204750.12 contracts | 2027-01-27T18:59:00Z |
| Fed decisions (Sep–Dec): Hike–Pause–Hike | Polymarket | 76.5% | $197,851.01 Vol. | 2026-12-09T23:59:00Z |
| Fed decisions (Sep–Dec): Hike–Pause–Pause | Polymarket | 20% | $193,958.81 Vol. | 2026-12-09T23:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in January?: 25 bps decrease | Polymarket | 3.45% | $189,841.73 Vol. | 2027-01-28T04:59:00Z |
| Next Fed rate hike: Before 2027 | Kalshi | 78% | 183456.03 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime: Barack Obama | Kalshi | 1.6% | 157170.05 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Fed funds rate: Above 4.25% | Kalshi | 1% | 136032.87 contracts | 2026-12-09T18:55:00Z |
| Fed Decision in January?: 50+ bps increase | Polymarket | 0.65% | $129,700.03 Vol. | 2027-01-28T04:59:00Z |
| Fed meeting: Fed maintains rate | Kalshi | 93% | 113009.47 contracts | 2027-07-28T17:59:00Z |
| Fed funds rate: Above 3.75% | Kalshi | 97% | 98063.06 contracts | 2026-12-09T18:55:00Z |
| How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 4 (100 bps) | Polymarket | 0.05% | $95,212.31 Vol. | 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z |
| Fed decisions (Oct-Jan): Pause-Hike-Pause | Polymarket | 72% | $92,819.05 Vol. | 2027-01-27T23:59:00Z |
| Fed meeting: Fed maintains rate | Kalshi | 74% | 85537.01 contracts | 2027-01-27T18:59:00Z |
| How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?: 5+ (125+ bps) | Polymarket | 0.05% | $82,164.10 Vol. | 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z |
| Fed meeting: Cut 25bps | Kalshi | 7% | 82104.61 contracts | 2027-10-27T17:59:00Z |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime: Jack Smith | Kalshi | 3.3% | 81335.44 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime: John Brennan | Kalshi | 11% | 81009.30 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Fed meeting: Hike >25bps | Kalshi | 2% | 78012.27 contracts | 2027-12-08T18:59:00Z |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime: Bill Clinton | Kalshi | 2.1% | 73070.65 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime: Letitia James | Kalshi | 6.5% | 72058.73 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime: Hillary Clinton | Kalshi | 2.7% | 71689.12 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Number of rate changes: Exactly 1 | Kalshi | 27% | 70040.62 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Fed meeting: Hike 25bps | Kalshi | 14% | 69032.19 contracts | 2027-04-28T17:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in March?: 25 bps increase | Polymarket | 35.5% | $67,508.02 Vol. | 2027-03-18T03:59:00Z |
| Will DC be federalized?: A bill ending self rule in Washington DC | Kalshi | 5% | 57826.80 contracts | 2027-01-01T15:00:00Z |
| Number of rate changes: Exactly 2 | Kalshi | 76.3% | 55126.63 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime: Adam Schiff | Kalshi | 5.1% | 55021.03 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Fed meeting: Cut >25bps | Kalshi | 2% | 53550.06 contracts | 2027-10-27T17:59:00Z |
| Fed funds rate: Above 4.00% | Kalshi | 75% | 50117.00 contracts | 2027-12-08T18:55:00Z |
| Fed funds rate: Above 3.50% | Kalshi | 98% | 46046.69 contracts | 2026-12-09T18:55:00Z |
| Next Fed rate hike: Before July 2027 | Kalshi | 87% | 40437.99 contracts | 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z |
| Fed decisions (Sep–Dec): Other | Polymarket | 1.8% | $39,781.14 Vol. | 2026-12-09T23:59:00Z |
| Number of rate changes: Exactly 3 | Kalshi | 0.1% | 36499.03 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in March?: No change | Polymarket | 53.5% | $31,919.34 Vol. | 2027-03-18T03:59:00Z |
| Fed decisions (Oct-Jan): Pause-Hike-Hike | Polymarket | 6.8% | $30,653.08 Vol. | 2027-01-27T23:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in April?: 25 bps increase | Polymarket | 14% | $28,662.43 Vol. | 2027-04-28T23:59:00Z |
| Fed funds rate: Above 4.25% | Kalshi | 89% | 26401.04 contracts | 2027-06-09T17:55:00Z |
| Fed funds rate: Above 5.50% | Kalshi | 10% | 25589.00 contracts | 2027-12-08T18:55:00Z |
| Fed funds rate: Above 3.50% | Kalshi | 94% | 24107.85 contracts | 2027-04-28T17:55:00Z |
| How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?: 0 | Polymarket | 73% | $24,056.92 Vol. | 2026-12-10T04:59:00Z |
| Fed funds rate: Above 2.75% | Kalshi | 99% | 23711.95 contracts | 2026-12-09T18:55:00Z |
| Fed funds rate: Above 4.00% | Kalshi | 95% | 20947.21 contracts | 2027-04-28T17:55:00Z |
| Fed decisions (Oct-Jan): Pause-Pause-Pause | Polymarket | 8.5% | $20,438.72 Vol. | 2027-01-27T23:59:00Z |
| Fed funds rate: Above 4.25% | Kalshi | 84% | 20319.85 contracts | 2027-04-28T17:55:00Z |
| Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken in 2026?: Dot Plot Omitted | Kalshi | 4% | 18475.16 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken in 2026?: Presser Skipped | Kalshi | 2% | 18287.88 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Fed decisions (Oct-Jan): Pause-Pause-Hike | Polymarket | 13.55% | $15,348.83 Vol. | 2027-01-27T23:59:00Z |
| Fed ended: Before Jan 1, 2027 | Kalshi | 2.8% | 13640.86 contracts | 2027-01-01T15:00:00Z |
| Fed Decision in April?: No change | Polymarket | 59% | $12,737.55 Vol. | 2027-04-28T23:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in March?: 50+ bps decrease | Polymarket | 1.75% | $11,320.90 Vol. | 2027-03-18T03:59:00Z |
| How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?: 3 | Polymarket | 11% | $10,841.36 Vol. | 2027-01-28T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Funds Target Rate Above 3.375% (December 10 2026 FOMC) | ForecastEx | 99% | Open interest 9953; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2026-12-09 |
| Fed rate cut by...?: January 2027 Meeting | Polymarket | 6.7% | $9,429.90 Vol. | 2027-02-08T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in March?: 25 bps decrease | Polymarket | 5.65% | $9,281.18 Vol. | 2027-03-18T03:59:00Z |
| How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?: 1 | Polymarket | 11.25% | $8,379.39 Vol. | 2026-12-10T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in March?: 50+ bps increase | Polymarket | 1.5% | $8,131.29 Vol. | 2027-03-18T03:59:00Z |
| How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?: 2 | Polymarket | 9.05% | $7,753.18 Vol. | 2026-12-09T15:59:00Z |
| Federal government employee count: More than 150,000 | Kalshi | 10% | 7640.82 contracts | 2027-03-04T15:00:00Z |
| Federal government employee count: More than 100,000 | Kalshi | 15% | 7419.80 contracts | 2027-03-04T15:00:00Z |
| Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken in 2026?: Reserve President Rejected | Kalshi | 15% | 7167.15 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Funds Target Rate Above 3.125% (January 27 2027 FOMC) | ForecastEx | 97% | Open interest 6774; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2027-01-27 |
| How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?: 4+ | Polymarket | 2.65% | $6,506.99 Vol. | 2026-12-09T15:59:00Z |
| Fed decisions (Oct-Jan): Other | Polymarket | 1.4% | $6,241.86 Vol. | 2027-01-27T23:59:00Z |
| Fed rate cut by...?: March 2027 Meeting | Polymarket | 12.5% | $6,197.57 Vol. | 2027-04-08T03:59:00Z |
| How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?: 0 | Polymarket | 56% | $5,686.51 Vol. | 2027-01-28T04:59:00Z |
| How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?: 4+ | Polymarket | 6.5% | $4,590.93 Vol. | 2027-01-28T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in April?: 25 bps decrease | Polymarket | 9% | $4,454.30 Vol. | 2027-04-28T23:59:00Z |
| Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken in 2026?: Trimmed Mean Emphasized | Kalshi | 6% | 3739.33 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?: 3 | Polymarket | 2.6% | $3,471.49 Vol. | 2026-12-09T15:59:00Z |
| How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?: 1 | Polymarket | 15% | $3,411.59 Vol. | 2027-01-28T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in April?: 50+ bps decrease | Polymarket | 6.05% | $3,344.27 Vol. | 2027-04-28T23:59:00Z |
| Number of rate changes: Exactly 5 | Kalshi | 0.1% | 2328.48 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Number of rate changes: Exactly 4 | Kalshi | 1% | 2321.32 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Federal government employee count: More than 250,000 | Kalshi | 6% | 2301.82 contracts | 2027-03-04T15:00:00Z |
| How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?: 2 | Polymarket | 4.65% | $2,129.73 Vol. | 2027-01-28T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Decision in April?: 50+ bps increase | Polymarket | 1.95% | $1,966.38 Vol. | 2027-04-28T23:59:00Z |
| Number of rate changes: Exactly 6 | Kalshi | 0.3% | 1518.94 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Number of rate changes: Exactly 12 | Kalshi | 0.2% | 1424.14 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Number of rate changes: Exactly 10 | Kalshi | 0.2% | 1419.79 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Number of rate changes: Exactly 7 | Kalshi | 0.3% | 1381.76 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Number of rate changes: Exactly 8 | Kalshi | 0.3% | 1377.76 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Federal government employee count: More than 350,000 | Kalshi | 2% | 1366.76 contracts | 2027-03-04T15:00:00Z |
| Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026? | Manifold | 1% | M$1,228.73 | 2026-12-30T23:59:00Z |
| Next Fed rate cut: Before 2027 | Kalshi | 6% | 1060.00 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Next Fed rate cut: Before July 2027 | Kalshi | 35% | 924.31 contracts | 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z |
| Federal government employee count: More than 200,000 | Kalshi | 10% | 877.64 contracts | 2027-03-04T15:00:00Z |
| Total dissenting FOMC votes in year: Exactly 9 | Kalshi | 58% | 828.41 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Total dissenting FOMC votes in year: Exactly 10 | Kalshi | 20% | 741.12 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Federal government employee count: More than 300,000 | Kalshi | 8% | 624.63 contracts | 2027-03-04T15:00:00Z |
| Total dissenting FOMC votes in year: Exactly 12 | Kalshi | 12% | 533.38 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Fed Funds Target Rate Above 3.125% (December 10 2026 FOMC) | ForecastEx | 98% | Open interest 527; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2026-12-09 |
| Fed Funds Target Rate Above 3.375% (January 27 2027 FOMC) | ForecastEx | 97% | Open interest 482; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2027-01-27 |
| Total dissenting FOMC votes in year: 13+ | Kalshi | 5% | 300.14 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Total dissenting FOMC votes in year: Exactly 11 | Kalshi | 8% | 229.27 contracts | 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z |
| Fed rate cut by...?: July 2027 Meeting | Polymarket | 48% | $161.76 Vol. | 2027-08-08T03:59:00Z |
| Fed rate cut by...?: April 2027 Meeting | Polymarket | 47.5% | $155.65 Vol. | 2027-05-08T03:59:00Z |
| Fed rate cut by...?: June 2027 Meeting | Polymarket | 31.5% | $27.34 Vol. | 2027-07-08T03:59:00Z |
| Bank of Korea Decision in November | Limitless | Not priced | Not shown | 2026-11-26T00:00:00.000Z |
| FOMC Target Rate Event Contract Strike 2.25 | CME Group Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 12:59 PM ET on the FOMC announcement date |
| FOMC Target Rate Event Contract Strike 2.50 | CME Group Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 12:59 PM ET on the FOMC announcement date |
| FOMC Target Rate Event Contract Strike 2.75 | CME Group Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 12:59 PM ET on the FOMC announcement date |
| Fed Rate Decision in December 2026: Cut 25bps | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | See market |
| Fed Rate Decision in December 2026: Fed maintains rate | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | See market |
| Fed Rate Decision in December 2026: Hike 25bps | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | See market |
| Fed Rate Decision in January 2027: Cut 25bps | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 2027-01-27 |
| Fed Rate Decision in January 2027: Fed maintains rate | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 2027-01-27 |
| Fed Rate Decision in January 2027: Hike 25bps | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 2027-01-27 |
| Fed Rate Decision in January 2027: Hike >25bps | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 2027-01-27 |
| Fed Rate Decision in March 2027: Fed maintains rate | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 2027-03-17 |
| Fed Rate Decision in March 2027: Hike 25bps | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 2027-03-17 |
| Fed Rate Decision in March 2027: Hike >25bps | Robinhood Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 2027-03-17 |
Snapshot data: prices and volume were collected from the platform on Nov 8, 2026. They are dated snapshots, not live quotes. Use the live market link for current prices.