Economy prediction markets
Markets on GDP, payrolls, unemployment and recession calls in the United States and beyond.
151
Markets tracked
142
Priced in the snapshot
5
Platforms
Polymarket
Most markets listed
| Market | Platform | Yes price (snapshot) | Volume (snapshot) | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 4.0–5.0% | Polymarket | 96.2% | $247,956.23 Vol. | 2027-01-31T00:00:00Z |
| US recession in 2026? | Manifold | 4.18% | M$134,057.77 | 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z |
| China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 9.0%+ | Polymarket | 0.3% | $117,698.02 Vol. | 2027-01-31T00:00:00Z |
| China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 6.0-7.0% | Polymarket | 0.15% | $91,788.78 Vol. | 2027-01-31T00:00:00Z |
| China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 5.0–6.0% | Polymarket | 2.3% | $88,114.65 Vol. | 2027-01-31T00:00:00Z |
| China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 3.0–4.0% | Polymarket | 0.9% | $87,819.22 Vol. | 2027-01-31T00:00:00Z |
| China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 1.0–2.0% | Polymarket | 0.6% | $76,699.24 Vol. | 2027-01-31T00:00:00Z |
| China Annual GDP Growth 2026: <1.0% | Polymarket | 0.05% | $68,208.85 Vol. | 2027-01-31T00:00:00Z |
| China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 7.0–8.0% | Polymarket | 0.05% | $65,373.22 Vol. | 2027-01-31T00:00:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 3.5% | Kalshi | 12% | 55073.11 contracts | 2027-04-29T12:29:00Z |
| China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 8.0–9.0% | Polymarket | 0.2% | $54,912.43 Vol. | 2027-01-31T00:00:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 3.5% | Kalshi | 27% | 53015.44 contracts | 2027-01-28T13:29:00Z |
| UK Annual GDP Growth 2026: 1-2% | Polymarket | 88.8% | $46,919.10 Vol. | 2027-02-12T00:00:00Z |
| China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 2.0–3.0% | Polymarket | 0.2% | $46,788.71 Vol. | 2027-01-31T00:00:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 4.0% | Kalshi | 13% | 36839.00 contracts | 2027-04-29T12:29:00Z |
| Negative GDP growth in 2026? | Polymarket | 2.8% | $34,292.30 Vol. | 2027-01-29T00:00:00Z |
| Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026: 1.0-2.0% | Polymarket | 86% | $32,812.76 Vol. | 2027-02-01T04:59:00Z |
| 2026 World GDP Growth: 3.1% | Polymarket | 35.15% | $32,018.36 Vol. | 2027-01-15T00:00:00Z |
| Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?: 0.0%–0.8% | Polymarket | 29.5% | $31,362.14 Vol. | 2026-11-16T00:00:00Z |
| UK Annual GDP Growth 2026: 0-1% | Polymarket | 6.75% | $28,495.41 Vol. | 2027-02-13T04:59:00Z |
| Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026: 0-1.0% | Polymarket | 12.95% | $25,525.40 Vol. | 2027-02-01T04:59:00Z |
| GDP growth in 2026: >2.5% | Polymarket | 48.35% | $25,381.42 Vol. | 2027-01-29T00:00:00Z |
| Will Australia enter a recession before 2026? | Manifold | 0.97% | M$23,577.39 | 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z |
| 2026 World GDP Growth: ≤2.9% | Polymarket | 2.95% | $22,233.13 Vol. | 2027-01-15T00:00:00Z |
| GDP growth in 2026: 2.0–2.5% | Polymarket | 48.5% | $20,790.77 Vol. | 2027-01-29T00:00:00Z |
| GDP growth in 2026: 0.5–1.0% | Polymarket | 0.25% | $18,458.48 Vol. | 2027-01-29T00:00:00Z |
| Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?: 0.0% to 0.2% | Polymarket | 13.75% | $17,808.89 Vol. | 2026-12-02T00:00:00Z |
| UK Recession in 2026? | Polymarket | 2.8% | $15,916.79 Vol. | 2027-05-01T03:59:00Z |
| 2026 World GDP Growth: 3.0% | Polymarket | 13.55% | $14,654.50 Vol. | 2027-01-15T00:00:00Z |
| Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?: -0.3% to -0.1% | Polymarket | 40.5% | $13,977.83 Vol. | 2026-12-02T00:00:00Z |
| UK Annual GDP Growth 2026: <0 | Polymarket | 0.6% | $13,273.53 Vol. | 2027-02-13T04:59:00Z |
| UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?: 0.4–0.5% | Polymarket | 13% | $12,696.75 Vol. | 2026-11-13T04:59:00Z |
| UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?: 0.2–0.3% | Polymarket | 0.65% | $12,265.02 Vol. | 2026-11-13T04:59:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 3.5% | Kalshi | 13% | 11099.00 contracts | 2027-07-29T12:29:00Z |
| UK Annual GDP Growth 2026: 4-5% | Polymarket | 0.3% | $10,715.36 Vol. | 2027-02-12T00:00:00Z |
| Canada GDP: September 2026 (MoM): -0.2 to -0.1% | Polymarket | 72% | $10,492.62 Vol. | 2026-11-30T12:30:00Z |
| UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?: 0.6–0.7% | Polymarket | 59.3% | $10,170.05 Vol. | 2026-11-13T04:59:00Z |
| GDP growth in 2026: 1.5–2.0% | Polymarket | 1.6% | $10,016.80 Vol. | 2027-01-29T00:00:00Z |
| 2026 World GDP Growth: 3.2% | Polymarket | 37.75% | $9,949.03 Vol. | 2027-01-15T00:00:00Z |
| China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q4 2026?: 4.6-4.9% | Polymarket | 52.5% | $9,940.52 Vol. | 2027-02-01T04:59:00Z |
| UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?: 0.0–0.1% | Polymarket | 0.35% | $9,773.57 Vol. | 2026-11-13T04:59:00Z |
| GDP growth in 2026: <0.5% | Polymarket | 0.4% | $9,302.18 Vol. | 2027-01-29T00:00:00Z |
| Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?: -0.8%–0.0% | Polymarket | 21% | $9,076.40 Vol. | 2026-11-16T00:00:00Z |
| Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?: 0.8%–1.6% | Polymarket | 20.7% | $8,284.37 Vol. | 2026-11-16T00:00:00Z |
| Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?: 0.3% to 0.5% | Polymarket | 3.1% | $7,347.78 Vol. | 2026-12-02T00:00:00Z |
| US GDP growth in Q4 2026?: <1.5% | Polymarket | 7.5% | $6,886.88 Vol. | 2027-01-29T04:59:00Z |
| UK Annual GDP Growth 2026: 2-3% | Polymarket | 1.9% | $6,439.77 Vol. | 2027-02-12T00:00:00Z |
| Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026: 6.0-7.0% | Polymarket | 0.15% | $6,339.10 Vol. | 2027-02-01T04:59:00Z |
| UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?: Negative | Polymarket | 0.5% | $6,257.52 Vol. | 2026-11-13T04:59:00Z |
| Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?: <-0.3% | Polymarket | 43.5% | $6,235.68 Vol. | 2026-12-02T00:00:00Z |
| US GDP growth in Q4 2026?: 3.0% to 3.5% | Polymarket | 17% | $6,112.39 Vol. | 2027-01-29T04:59:00Z |
| Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026: 4.0-5.0% | Polymarket | 0.15% | $6,078.29 Vol. | 2027-02-01T04:59:00Z |
| UK Annual GDP Growth 2026: 5%+ | Polymarket | 0.65% | $6,056.63 Vol. | 2027-02-12T00:00:00Z |
| GDP growth in 2026: 1.0–1.5% | Polymarket | 0.15% | $6,016.51 Vol. | 2027-01-29T00:00:00Z |
| China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q4 2026?: 4.3-4.6% | Polymarket | 47.5% | $5,846.58 Vol. | 2027-02-01T04:59:00Z |
| Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026: <0% | Polymarket | 0.25% | $5,842.88 Vol. | 2027-02-01T04:59:00Z |
| 2026 World GDP Growth: 3.3% | Polymarket | 6.3% | $5,499.73 Vol. | 2027-01-15T00:00:00Z |
| 2026 World GDP Growth: 3.4% | Polymarket | 2.5% | $5,352.94 Vol. | 2027-01-15T00:00:00Z |
| Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?: -2.4%– -1.6% | Polymarket | 1.25% | $5,224.79 Vol. | 2026-11-17T04:59:00Z |
| Unemployment Rate Dec 2026 Above 3.7% | ForecastEx | 95% | Open interest 5221; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2027-01-08 |
| Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026: 2.0-3.0% | Polymarket | 0.15% | $5,130.31 Vol. | 2027-02-01T04:59:00Z |
| UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?: 0.8–0.9% | Polymarket | 28.1% | $5,032.79 Vol. | 2026-11-13T04:59:00Z |
| Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?: 2.4%–3.2% | Polymarket | 1% | $4,962.51 Vol. | 2026-11-17T04:59:00Z |
| Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026: 7.0%+ | Polymarket | 0.05% | $4,909.15 Vol. | 2027-02-01T04:59:00Z |
| US GDP growth in Q4 2026?: 1.5% to 2.0% | Polymarket | 7.6% | $4,886.75 Vol. | 2027-01-29T04:59:00Z |
| Recession in Australia in 2026? | Manifold | 8.94% | M$4,743.83 | 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z |
| UK Annual GDP Growth 2026: 3-4% | Polymarket | 0.25% | $4,695.52 Vol. | 2027-02-12T00:00:00Z |
| 2026 World GDP Growth: 3.5% | Polymarket | 0.6% | $4,591.02 Vol. | 2027-01-15T00:00:00Z |
| Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026: 5.0-6.0% | Polymarket | 0.05% | $4,520.80 Vol. | 2027-02-01T04:59:00Z |
| Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026: 3.0-4.0% | Polymarket | 0.05% | $4,443.49 Vol. | 2027-02-01T04:59:00Z |
| Japan recession in 2026? | Polymarket | 8.5% | $4,336.18 Vol. | 2027-05-01T03:59:00Z |
| Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?: 1.6%–2.4% | Polymarket | 1.9% | $4,324.74 Vol. | 2026-11-16T00:00:00Z |
| US GDP growth in Q4 2026?: 2.5% to 3.0% | Polymarket | 14.5% | $3,843.02 Vol. | 2027-01-29T04:59:00Z |
| US recession in 2026? | Manifold | 3.19% | M$3,810.23 | 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z |
| US GDP growth in Q4 2026?: ≥4.0% | Polymarket | 16.5% | $3,747.27 Vol. | 2027-01-29T04:59:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 1.5% | Kalshi | 91% | 3536.28 contracts | 2027-01-28T13:29:00Z |
| Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?: -1.6%– -0.8% | Polymarket | 11.5% | $3,532.21 Vol. | 2026-11-17T04:59:00Z |
| Will the US enter a recession in 2026? | Manifold | 4.14% | M$3,375.45 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00Z |
| Will the UK enter a technical recession in 2026? | Manifold | 10.59% | M$3,317.09 | 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z |
| Unemployment rate for new college grads increases in 2026? | Manifold | 39.34% | M$2,848.51 | 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 2.0% | Kalshi | 76% | 2758.23 contracts | 2027-01-28T13:29:00Z |
| Jobs numbers: Above 125,000 | Kalshi | 21% | 1869.00 contracts | 2026-12-04T13:29:00Z |
| Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026? | Manifold | 44.75% | M$1,748.21 | 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z |
| Jobs numbers: Above 80,000 | Kalshi | 31% | 1726.83 contracts | 2026-12-04T13:29:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 1.0% | Kalshi | 90% | 1669.02 contracts | 2027-01-28T13:29:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 4.0% | Kalshi | 13% | 1620.00 contracts | 2027-01-28T13:29:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 4.0% | Kalshi | 8% | 1253.02 contracts | 2027-07-29T12:29:00Z |
| Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026? | Manifold | 13.32% | M$1,064.38 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00Z |
| Unemployment Rate Dec 2026 Above 3.2% | ForecastEx | 97% | Open interest 1020; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2027-01-08 |
| US GDP growth: Above 2.5% | Kalshi | 63% | 946.58 contracts | 2027-01-28T13:29:00Z |
| Jobs numbers: Above 60,000 | Kalshi | 72% | 937.27 contracts | 2026-12-04T13:29:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 2.0% | Kalshi | 50% | 899.24 contracts | 2027-04-29T12:29:00Z |
| Jobs numbers: Above -25,000 | Kalshi | 95% | 890.24 contracts | 2026-12-04T13:29:00Z |
| Jobs numbers: Above 0 | Kalshi | 92% | 836.64 contracts | 2026-12-04T13:29:00Z |
| Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026? | Manifold | 12% | M$816.66 | 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z |
| Will US Real GDP accelerate dramatically over 2023-2026? | Manifold | 4.13% | M$794.03 | 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z |
| Jobs numbers: Above 50,000 | Kalshi | 72% | 779.23 contracts | 2026-12-04T13:29:00Z |
| Jobs numbers: Above 30,000 | Kalshi | 15% | 756.88 contracts | 2026-12-04T13:29:00Z |
| Unemployment Rate Dec 2026 Above 4.7% | ForecastEx | 8% | Open interest 746; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2027-01-08 |
| Jobs numbers: Above 90,000 | Kalshi | 44% | 733.53 contracts | 2026-12-04T13:29:00Z |
| Will the US enter a recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) by end of 2026? | Manifold | 4.82% | M$685.65 | 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z |
| Will the US unemployment rate hit more than 6% in any month of 2026? | Manifold | 10.09% | M$679.78 | 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 1.0% | Kalshi | 73% | 671.15 contracts | 2027-04-29T12:29:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 0.0% | Kalshi | 93% | 655.00 contracts | 2027-07-29T12:29:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 2.0% | Kalshi | 55% | 643.60 contracts | 2027-07-29T12:29:00Z |
| Will Canada's real GDP growth rate fall below 0.4% for any quarter by EOY 2026? | Manifold | 96% | M$617.32 | 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z |
| Unemployment Rate Dec 2026 Above 4.2% | ForecastEx | 44% | Open interest 613; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2027-01-08 |
| US GDP growth: Above 1.5% | Kalshi | 66% | 606.01 contracts | 2027-07-29T12:29:00Z |
| Unemployment Rate Nov 2026 Above 4.0% | ForecastEx | 87% | Open interest 565; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2026-12-04 |
| Jobs numbers: Above 10,000 | Kalshi | 83% | 545.78 contracts | 2026-12-04T13:29:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 0.5% | Kalshi | 88% | 520.06 contracts | 2027-04-29T12:29:00Z |
| Jobs numbers: Above 20,000 | Kalshi | 88% | 489.10 contracts | 2026-12-04T13:29:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 0.5% | Kalshi | 85% | 453.12 contracts | 2027-07-29T12:29:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 2.5% | Kalshi | 44% | 387.68 contracts | 2027-04-29T12:29:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 0.5% | Kalshi | 92% | 377.04 contracts | 2027-01-28T13:29:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 3.0% | Kalshi | 35% | 364.00 contracts | 2027-07-29T12:29:00Z |
| Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? | Manifold | 12.77% | M$355.56 | 2026-12-04T13:25:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 2.5% | Kalshi | 44% | 353.00 contracts | 2027-07-29T12:29:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 0.0% | Kalshi | 95% | 325.99 contracts | 2027-04-29T12:29:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 3.0% | Kalshi | 34% | 291.02 contracts | 2027-04-29T12:29:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 1.5% | Kalshi | 63% | 272.00 contracts | 2027-04-29T12:29:00Z |
| Will Vietnam's real GDP grow by at least 12% in 2026 | Manifold | 5.9% | M$266.00 | 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 3.0% | Kalshi | 52% | 258.60 contracts | 2027-01-28T13:29:00Z |
| US GDP growth: Above 1.0% | Kalshi | 77% | 258.00 contracts | 2027-07-29T12:29:00Z |
| Real GDP Q3 2026 Above 2.5% | ForecastEx | 86% | Open interest 170; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2026-12-23 |
| Real GDP Q4 2026 Above 1.0% | ForecastEx | 65% | Open interest 170; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2027-03-25 |
| Retail Sales Dec 2026 Above 1.0% | ForecastEx | 48% | Open interest 170; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2027-01-15 |
| US GDP growth: Above 0.0% | Kalshi | 94% | 138.01 contracts | 2027-01-28T13:29:00Z |
| Real GDP Q4 2026 Above 1.5% | ForecastEx | 55% | Open interest 130; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2027-03-25 |
| Retail Sales Dec 2026 Above 0.5% | ForecastEx | 60% | Open interest 120; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2027-01-15 |
| Housing Starts Dec 2026 Above 1400000 | ForecastEx | 25% | Open interest 100; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2027-01-19 |
| Retail Sales Dec 2026 Above 1.5% | ForecastEx | 34% | Open interest 100; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2027-01-15 |
| Real GDP Q3 2026 Above 3.0% | ForecastEx | 51% | Open interest 90; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2026-12-23 |
| Housing Starts Dec 2026 Above 1300000 | ForecastEx | 54% | Open interest 70; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2027-01-19 |
| Real GDP Q3 2026 Above 3.5% | ForecastEx | 36% | Open interest 70; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2026-12-23 |
| Housing Starts Dec 2026 Above 1200000 | ForecastEx | 74% | Open interest 60; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2027-01-19 |
| Real GDP Q3 2026 Above 4.0% | ForecastEx | 25% | Open interest 50; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2026-12-23 |
| Building Permits Dec 2026 Above 1400000 | ForecastEx | 79% | Open interest 30; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2027-01-19 |
| Building Permits Dec 2026 Above 1500000 | ForecastEx | 44% | Open interest 30; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2027-01-19 |
| Building Permits Dec 2026 Above 1600000 | ForecastEx | 19% | Open interest 20; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2027-01-19 |
| GDP Advance Estimate Event Contract Strike -0.50 | CME Group Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 8:29 AM ET on the date GDP is announced |
| GDP Advance Estimate Event Contract Strike 0 | CME Group Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 8:29 AM ET on the date GDP is announced |
| GDP Advance Estimate Event Contract Strike 0.50 | CME Group Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 8:29 AM ET on the date GDP is announced |
| Nonfarm Payroll Event Contract Strike -50000 | CME Group Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 8:29 AM ET on the date Nonfarm Payroll is announced |
| Nonfarm Payroll Event Contract Strike 0 | CME Group Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 8:29 AM ET on the date Nonfarm Payroll is announced |
| Nonfarm Payroll Event Contract Strike 50000 | CME Group Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 8:29 AM ET on the date Nonfarm Payroll is announced |
| Payroll Employment Dec 2026 Strike 118000 | ForecastEx | 44% | Open interest 0; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2027-01-08 |
| Payroll Employment Dec 2026 Strike 18000 | ForecastEx | 48% | Open interest 0; pair quantity 0 (ForecastEx daily prices file 2026-11-07) | 2027-01-08 |
| Unemployment Rate Event Contract Strike 3.90 | CME Group Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 8:29 AM ET on the date the Unemployment Rate is announced |
| Unemployment Rate Event Contract Strike 4.00 | CME Group Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 8:29 AM ET on the date the Unemployment Rate is announced |
| Unemployment Rate Event Contract Strike 4.10 | CME Group Event Contracts | Not priced | Not shown | 8:29 AM ET on the date the Unemployment Rate is announced |
Snapshot data: prices and volume were collected from the platform on Nov 8, 2026. They are dated snapshots, not live quotes. Use the live market link for current prices.