OddsBoard app Snapshot Nov 8, 2026
Tracking Fed Odds in OddsBoard: A Meeting by Meeting Watchlist
OddsBoard is the companion app concept for this site: the dataset you are browsing, shaped into watchlists. The first watchlist most users build is the Fed one, and the design lesson from the data is that a Fed watchlist should be organized by meeting, not by platform. The snapshot holds 97 Fed decision markets, and the same meeting can appear as a Kalshi contract, a CME event contract and a Polymarket question with different strikes.
In the app, a meeting gets one row. Under it sit every contract in the dataset that prices that meeting, with the snapshot price, volume and platform. That layout kills the most common beginner error in this market, comparing a price for a cut of any size against a price for a named strike and calling the gap an arbitrage. The questions differ, so the prices should, and seeing them stacked by meeting makes the difference visible.
| Market | Platform | Yes price (snapshot) | Volume (snapshot) |
|---|---|---|---|
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps) | Polymarket | 98.05% | $9,540,471.42 Vol. |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 11 (275 bps) | Polymarket | 0.05% | $5,331,586.89 Vol. |
| Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase | Polymarket | 76.5% | $5,048,879.64 Vol. |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 10 (250 bps) | Polymarket | 0.05% | $4,991,761.72 Vol. |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 9 (225 bps) | Polymarket | 0.05% | $4,324,517.02 Vol. |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 6 (150 bps) | Polymarket | 0.05% | $4,251,444.08 Vol. |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 12+ (300+ bps) | Polymarket | 0.1% | $4,182,857.86 Vol. |
| Fed Decision in December?: No change | Polymarket | 21.5% | $3,814,447.03 Vol. |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 1 (25 bps) | Polymarket | 1.1% | $3,710,618.49 Vol. |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 2 (50 bps) | Polymarket | 0.25% | $3,545,288.85 Vol. |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 7 (175 bps) | Polymarket | 0.05% | $3,535,545.29 Vol. |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 8 (200 bps) | Polymarket | 0.05% | $3,322,576.12 Vol. |
Alerts in the app are snapshot alerts, honestly labeled. OddsBoard does not pretend to stream live prices from this dataset. When a new snapshot is collected, the app compares it with the last one and flags the meetings whose implied probabilities moved most. For a market that re-prices on speeches and data prints, a dated before and after is more useful than a fake live feed.
One more design choice is worth stating: the app ranks contracts inside a meeting by volume, not by price. Volume is the closest thing this market has to a credibility score, and a new user who learns to ask how much traded before asking what is the price has learned the main skill the whole site teaches. The meeting rows also carry the count of platforms listing each meeting, because a question priced in five places is a different object from a question priced in one, and the difference should never be hidden inside an average.
The meeting view also gives the app its natural sharing unit. A meeting row, with its contracts and snapshot date, is a complete thought: here is what the market thinks the Fed does in December, everywhere it is priced. Sharing a single contract invites the wording error; sharing the meeting row prevents it. Social features in market apps usually optimize for excitement. This one optimizes for the reader on the other end not being misled, which turns out to be the better growth strategy for a data product anyway.
The workflow this creates is simple. Build the meeting watchlist once, let snapshot alerts surface the moves, then open the live market from the app when a move deserves a trade. The tracker page on this site is the same idea in web form, and it is the page the app concept was designed around.
Snapshot data: prices and volume were collected from the platform on Nov 8, 2026. They are dated snapshots, not live quotes. Use the live market link for current prices.