Data snapshot Snapshot Nov 8, 2026
Single Stock Event Markets: Small, Specific and Growing
Beyond the index ladders sits a smaller, quirkier shelf: markets on individual stocks. The snapshot holds single stock markets and daily up or down contracts on named companies, the prediction market version of a one stock opinion. They are a small slice of the 183 market equities category, and that smallness is the story. The genre is young, specific, and still finding its volume.
What do these contracts actually price? A daily contract settles on whether a named stock closes up or down on a stated day, the simplest possible event. Others attach to company events with dates: product launches, decisions, deadlines. The common thread is a resolution source that can be checked without argument, a closing price or a published outcome.
| Market | Platform | Yes price (snapshot) | Volume (snapshot) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y UST: 4.75% or above | Kalshi | 66% | 12674.50 contracts |
| 10Y UST: 5.15% or above | Kalshi | 26% | 12417.34 contracts |
| 10Y UST: 5% or above | Kalshi | 44% | 12280.06 contracts |
| 10Y UST: 5.1% or above | Kalshi | 30% | 12249.79 contracts |
| 10Y UST: 5.5% or above | Kalshi | 7% | 6019.86 contracts |
| 10Y UST: 5.25% or above | Kalshi | 16% | 5513.38 contracts |
| 10Y how high monthly: 5.35% or above | Kalshi | 15% | 2923.57 contracts |
| 10Y UST: 6% or above | Kalshi | 2% | 1675.21 contracts |
| 10Y how high monthly: 5.45% or above | Kalshi | 17% | 1361.90 contracts |
| AAPL Daily Up or Down | Limitless | Not priced | Not shown |
| AMZN Daily Up or Down | Limitless | Not priced | Not shown |
| GOOGL Daily Up or Down | Limitless | Not priced | Not shown |
Thin volume is the honest caveat. A daily contract on a mid cap name may trade a few hundred contracts, and its price can sit far from any considered view simply because few people showed up. That makes these markets a poor oracle and a decent diary: they record what a small crowd was willing to price on the day, no more.
Regulation shapes this shelf more than most. In the United States, single stock event contracts sit in a contested corner of the derivatives world, and the set of names and event types on offer reflects what platforms judge they can list defensibly. That is part of why the book is small and why it skews to large, liquid names with unambiguous settlement sources. If the genre grows, it will grow name by name and ruling by ruling. Tracking the current shelf, dated, is how a reader will notice the growth when it happens rather than reading a press release about it.
There is also a research use for these thin markets that their size makes easy to miss. A daily up or down price on a stock, recorded across an earnings season, is a dated sentiment print from a crowd with money down. Archived across quarters, those prints become a panel dataset on how event traders positioned into known catalysts. Thin markets make poor oracles and good archives, provided the archive is honest about volume, which is why every page here shows the volume beside the price rather than in a footnote.
Why track them at all? Because the genre is where new market design shows up first, and because the overlap with the earnings book makes single stock pages useful context during reporting season. The equities category lists every one of them with snapshot prices, and the stocks hub puts them one click from the index ladders they complement.
Snapshot data: prices and volume were collected from the platform on Nov 8, 2026. They are dated snapshots, not live quotes. Use the live market link for current prices.