OddsBoard app Snapshot Nov 8, 2026
Setting Up Recession and Economy Alerts in OddsBoard
The economy book is where alert design gets philosophical. Recession markets, nine of them in the dataset, move slowly and mean different things depending on their definitions. An alert that fires on every two point move teaches users to ignore alerts. OddsBoard's economy alerts are therefore set wide by default, and every alert carries the contract's definition in its text, because a recession price without its definition is a number without a unit.
The watchlist groups the economy category by release and theme: GDP prints, payrolls, unemployment, and the recession questions that sit on top of them. The recession table below shows why the definition rule matters. Contracts resolving on an official declaration price a slower, more political event than contracts resolving mechanically on GDP quarters, and their prices differ for that reason alone.
| Market | Platform | Yes price (snapshot) | Volume (snapshot) |
|---|---|---|---|
| US recession in 2026? | Manifold | 4.18% | M$134,057.77 |
| Will Australia enter a recession before 2026? | Manifold | 0.97% | M$23,577.39 |
| UK Recession in 2026? | Polymarket | 2.8% | $15,916.79 Vol. |
| Recession in Australia in 2026? | Manifold | 8.94% | M$4,743.83 |
| Japan recession in 2026? | Polymarket | 8.5% | $4,336.18 Vol. |
| US recession in 2026? | Manifold | 3.19% | M$3,810.23 |
| Will the US enter a recession in 2026? | Manifold | 4.14% | M$3,375.45 |
| Will the UK enter a technical recession in 2026? | Manifold | 10.59% | M$3,317.09 |
| Will the US enter a recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) by end of 2026? | Manifold | 4.82% | M$685.65 |
GDP and payrolls markets get the opposite treatment: tight alerts around the print, because those contracts are ladders on a number that lands at a known time. The app treats a data release the way the rates desk does, as the event the whole category has been pricing toward.
There is a temptation in this category to add commentary, scores and traffic lights, and the app resists all of it. The economy book's value is that it is a set of prices with definitions and dates, kept clean. The moment a tracker starts translating a 31% recession price into a red amber green badge, it has replaced the market's judgment with its own and hidden the substitution. OddsBoard shows the number, the definition, the platform and the date. Readers who want a verdict can form one; readers who want the data can trust that the data is all they got.
Payrolls and GDP ladders round out the economy watchlist's education. A payrolls ladder prices a number the market will know at 8:30 on a Friday; between prints it mostly sleeps. New users often mistake that sleep for irrelevance. The alert defaults treat the pre print week as the event, waking the ladder up as the release approaches, which matches how the information actually arrives. Calendar awareness, again, is doing the work that a faster feed pretends to do.
Set up this way, the economy watchlist is quiet for weeks and loud on the mornings that matter. That rhythm, not raw coverage, is what makes an alerts product worth keeping on a phone. The economy category page shows the full book the alerts watch.
Snapshot data: prices and volume were collected from the platform on Nov 8, 2026. They are dated snapshots, not live quotes. Use the live market link for current prices.